Daksh Analytics

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Risk of ruin. How often a run of bad luck breaks the account.

Even a method with an edge can hit a deep fall from bad luck. This page plays 10,000 made-up accounts of 1,000 trades and counts how often the fall reached your ruin level. The boxes start with example numbers.

Method described by Ralph Vince (Vince style risk of ruin). Daksh Analytics is not linked to them.

Default 45. Allowed 0 to 100.

Default 2. Allowed 0.01 to 1,000.

Default 2. The share you lose if a trade fails.

Default 50. Allowed 1 to 100.

HYPOTHETICAL

Starting.

Chance of ruin
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Median worst fall
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95th percentile worst fall
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Warning: this assumes your win rate and payoff stay the same on every trade and that trades do not affect each other. Real markets do not behave that neatly, and numbers taken from a small or past sample can be far off.

Results are hypothetical and for illustration only. Not a guarantee. Not investment advice.

How it works. In plain words.

The page builds 10,000 pretend accounts. Each one places 1,000 trades. On every trade a coin with your win rate decides the outcome. A loss costs your risk per cent of the account as it stands, and a win gains that amount times your payoff ratio.

For each account the page tracks the biggest fall from its highest value. The chance of ruin is the share of accounts whose fall reached your ruin level. The median is the typical worst fall, and the 95th percentile is the fall that only 1 account in 20 did worse than.

Try raising the risk per trade: the chance of ruin climbs faster than most people expect. The simulation uses a fixed seed, so the same inputs always show the same answer. It is an estimate, not a forecast. Related: Kelly sizer.

For the curious

Each trade: account x (1 + risk x payoff) on a win with probability W, or account x (1 - risk) on a loss

drawdown = 1 - account / highest account value so far

ruin: drawdown at or above the ruin level at any point in the 1,000 trades; the run then stops

chance of ruin = ruined runs / 10,000; median and 95th percentile are taken over the worst drawdown of each run

generator: mulberry32 with a fixed seed, run in chunks of 250 runs so the page stays responsive

Important information
  • Education only. Not investment advice. Daksh Analytics is not SEBI-registered.
  • The numbers come only from what you type. Nothing is sent anywhere.
  • Past results do not predict future results.
  • Derivatives carry a high risk of loss.

See Terms, Privacy and Data sources.

Educational only. Not investment advice. Daksh Analytics is not SEBI-registered. These are teaching calculators that use only the numbers you type in; they cannot know your real costs, taxes, slippage or how markets will behave.

Plain-language note. Education only. Not investment advice.